The American voter is currently siding with Michael Cohen over Donald Trump when their stories differ. According to a Quinnipiac University National Poll, 50 percent of registered voters believe Cohen and only 35 percent believe Trump.
An examination of sub-group responses reveals a Republican Party of out touch with the rest of America. It also suggests white males are out of touch with other voters.
Given the partisan nature of Republican and Democrat responses, an examination of independent voters (about 37 percent of us) and other sub-groups is key. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.4% on overall answers. Quinnipiac does not provide a margin of error for the sub-groups; a figure of +/- 10% is not an unreasonable assumption.
- On the question of ethics:
Do you think that a presidential candidate paying money to hide a negative story about themselves during a presidential campaign and not disclosing that expense is unethical, or not?
Overwhelmingly, voters think this kind of behavior is unethical.Even half of the Republican voters surveyed (not allowing for margin-of-error range) believe that such an act is unethical. There is no sub-group that believes this behavior is ethical.
- On the question of honesty:
Would you say that Donald Trump – is honest, or not?
Most voters think that Trump is not honest.On the question of honesty, partisanship bias reveals itself; only one-quarter of Republican voters surveyed believe that Trump is dishonest. Conversely, Democrats and Independents – as well as black and hispanic voters – overwhelmingly believe Trump is dishonest. Taking into account a 10 percent MOE among subgroups, white women do not think Trump is honest; neither do black voters, hispanic voters or white men with college degrees.So which demographic thinks that Trump is honest? For white males, the difference is too close to call; 46-50% is well within the margin of error for sub-groups. And that’s probably true for white voters in general (38-58%).
- On the question of criminal behavior:
Do you think that President Trump committed any crimes before he was president?
Most voters think that Trump committed crimes before becoming president.As with the question of honesty, partisanship bias reveals itself; only one-third of Republican voters surveyed believe that Trump committed crimes prior to 2017. Not accounting for margin-of-error with white sub-groups, every sub-group thinks that Trump committed crimes before assuming the office of the president. For white males in general, it’s possible that as a group they do not believe that Trump committed crimes, depending on the poll’s margin of error.
- On the question of Trump v Cohen:
In general, who do you believe more: President Trump or Michael Cohen?
Half of the voters surveyed believe Cohen over Trump, although 14 percent did not have an opinion.Partisanship swings are broader than in other questions; a key group, Independent voters, also believe Cohen over Trump. White voters with college degrees overwhelmingly believe Cohen, as do white women. Mirroring other trends, it is the white male sub-group and the white male without a college degree subgroup that are the outliers before considering the margin of error.
- On the question of role model for children:
Do you think that President Trump is a good role model for children?
Most American voters do not think Trump is a good role model for children.Once again, partisanship bias reveals itself; although 7-in-10 voters do not think that Trump is a good role model, more than half of Republican voters think that he is. Republican voters are the only sub-group to express this belief although the survey result is not outside the margin of error.
He will soon begin a three-year prison term for lying in Congressional testimony in 2017.